tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post7384196821682991771..comments2023-11-28T09:02:03.742+01:00Comments on The Seneca Effect: The Next Ten Billion YearsUgo Bardihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-84169637633738466392021-06-15T04:52:54.361+02:002021-06-15T04:52:54.361+02:00Thanks for the link. That will keep me busy for a...Thanks for the link. That will keep me busy for a while.k-doghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11788296863763985663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-89443224685184953402021-06-15T04:48:50.277+02:002021-06-15T04:48:50.277+02:00Yes, I used to read his 5000 word tomes every week...Yes, I used to read his 5000 word tomes every week. I actually measured them with software and discovered he was targeting his length to be almost 5000 words very closely. It was no coincidence. <br /><br />I thought to myself, why? I came up with an answer which I may share at another time. I also used to comment on what he wrote but found it frustrating as he would only publish comments which flatter him.<br /><br />Of the Peak Oil Gurus I think Greer is a better man than most. Several of the others lack his humanity. I am critical of Greer, but I do not consider him evil. k-doghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11788296863763985663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-53197291054727976322021-06-14T22:12:37.567+02:002021-06-14T22:12:37.567+02:00Nice comment Ugo, Im a fan of Greers non magic wor...Nice comment Ugo, Im a fan of Greers non magic work. He is very insightful if as you say long winded. Nick Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12609312325425361413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-25194751224243953452021-06-14T21:49:11.227+02:002021-06-14T21:49:11.227+02:00Greer is an incredibly smart person -- creative, t...Greer is an incredibly smart person -- creative, too. Too bad that he has sort of moved inward, to his druidism thing. His post have always been long, but worth reading. But long posts on druidism, well....Ugo Bardihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-86533240944895589742021-06-14T05:09:43.446+02:002021-06-14T05:09:43.446+02:00The Archdruid is no longer interested in collapse ...The Archdruid is no longer interested in collapse and is getting his jollies discussing the history of magic and the tending of his ego. I went back to refresh my memory with his objections and saw he expects 8000+ civilizations in 10,000,000 years.<br /><br />Being as the Archdude has left the movement, I think recognizing 8000+ civilizations in the next 10 million years should now be called out for what it is. <br /><br />Absurd!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!<br /><br />And self serving. If you are a druid you much prefer 8000+ civilizations. Your role as a druid is not threatened by a 'catabolic' scenario. Seeing the world as having little time to get it things right. THAT IS VERY THREATENING TO A DRUID. So what are you going to say it is true? We already know the Druid answer.<br /><br />It seems most people ignore facts and pick the outcome most copasetic to there own predilections. Even druids. I remember when Greer came out with his steady state 'catabolic' theory. I saw immediately that the math behind the future he was describing could not at all be possible. The first thing that has to happen is an orderly collapse for Greer to be right.<br /><br />We are not going to have an orderly collapse. We should be dealing with that fact and not postulate a 'no worries be happy' the collapse will be gentle possibility. As Greer did. Greer is irresponsible.k-doghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11788296863763985663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-59321663575581279432021-06-13T05:28:01.698+02:002021-06-13T05:28:01.698+02:00I think the problem with the bad scenario is the a...I think the problem with the bad scenario is the acidification with the oceans is not mentioned. Once enough CO2 is in the atmosphere, the oceans will likely become acidic to the point that ocean life declines rapidly, more so because people will turn to fishing to compensate for agriculture losses. This makes it harder for people to survive from fishing. However, I think that the ability of the oceans to absorb CO2, lock it up, and ameliorate the consequences of climate change may happen on a time scale that greatly compresses those listed in the bad scenario so that recovery may happen much faster. <br />Personally, I think the likeliest scenario is one in which people try hard to replace fossil fuels with renewables, but never fully succeed. Income inequality becomes far worse as the resources needed to fix the climate issues are more than society can bear without a dramatic drop in quality of life for all but the very rich. The world becomes stuck with the lifestyle seen during the CV-19 pandemic, with supply side issues being a recurring problem, along with increasing homelessness, drug abuse, and shorter lifespans overall due to disease or simply lack of medical treatment. Some communities manage to reach a sustainable level, but they are quickly overrun by people wishing to live that lifestyle only to find themselves in a "tragedy of the commons" scenario where too many trying to take advantage of public resources ruins sustainability for everyone.dirty_birdyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10222737866882581994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-30316924460091528052021-06-12T18:44:20.960+02:002021-06-12T18:44:20.960+02:00Excellent post...
I’d love to know the end result,...Excellent post...<br />I’d love to know the end result, but alas.....Maryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08987527540895782339noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-88449123483314601052021-06-12T00:14:21.143+02:002021-06-12T00:14:21.143+02:00"10 years from now. In 2030,..." - coal ..."<b><i>10 years from now. In 2030,...</i></b>" - coal production will become more and more handpicked, owing to the lack of diesel, other fuels, lubricants and other petrochemicals - potentially ushering the return of slavery. <br /><br />Mass coal extraction hugely reduced due to the fact depths of coal is now much greater than what solely coal-powered coal-mining can achieve alone.<br /><br />"<b><i>100 years from now. In 2100, humans' economic system has started...</i></b>" - to normalise, back to its natural style - in respect to geography, distances and laws of Physics;<br /><br />"<a href="https://the-fifth-law.com/pages/press-release?ugo=/2021/06/the-next-ten-billion-years.html" rel="nofollow">Energy, like time, flows from past to future</a>".<br /><br />The future returns more natural, extreme centralisation is receding, and humans awake on their colossal loss of all fossil fuels reserves in just 300 years - wailing.<br /><br />The recent video below demonstrates how humans are still confusing themselves about what would happen in the next 10 year and beyond:<br /><br /><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dw1fiXc6Qs0" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dw1fiXc6Qs0</a><br /><br /><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-aWUvc2WBk" rel="nofollow">Ongoing fuels shortages in Iraq</a>, an exporter of 4.5+ million barrel of oil daily, enough to keep whole India - a little oil reserve, 1.5 billion population-nation, thousands of kilometres away from Iraq - going.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-12667503244997437952021-06-11T23:28:26.829+02:002021-06-11T23:28:26.829+02:00I must confess that I had never heard the phrase &...I must confess that I had never heard the phrase "gilding the lily" -- very nice! And I saw the latest post by Jem Bendell!Ugo Bardihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-53047573325811966142021-06-11T20:40:05.824+02:002021-06-11T20:40:05.824+02:00A great piece - I feel that any comment I could ma...A great piece - I feel that any comment I could make would be just gilding the lily.<br /><br />So I won't! <br /><br />Did you see this by the way: https://jembendell.com/2021/06/11/for-environmentalists-covid-is-the-elephant-in-the-zoom/ P Bakerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03951229588424591400noreply@blogger.com