tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post4891243415240597384..comments2023-11-28T09:02:03.742+01:00Comments on The Seneca Effect: How to keep gasoline prices low: bomb your gas stationUgo Bardihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-6053517523326208702022-02-27T16:30:59.163+01:002022-02-27T16:30:59.163+01:00Without fossil fuels and nuclear weapons left over...Without fossil fuels and nuclear weapons left over from the Soviet union, Russia is just another small banana republic. <br />Unfortunately, those weapons probably still work.<br />Soviet era stuff was built to last.Art Decohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12955243137081184262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-82830987837051884102022-02-27T16:26:34.852+01:002022-02-27T16:26:34.852+01:00It appears that a natural experiment is now in pro...It appears that a natural experiment is now in progress in the Ukraine situation and it is time to revist this post.<br />Putin seems to think the EU has double crossed him (again) since Nord Stream Ii.<br />With gas prices and profits at a record high, Germany bought more natural gas from America than from Russia. <br />Russia was Europe’s and China’s local gas station and hasn't much else to make money from.<br />The rage that Putin is displaying is that of a Godfather who has been double crossed and money that he counted as his is going to an enemy. <br />Another post on this please.Art Decohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12955243137081184262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-23017346019396020632022-01-13T16:08:01.916+01:002022-01-13T16:08:01.916+01:00Well, I live at a site where peat was "harves...Well, I live at a site where peat was "harvested" in the 1600s and 1700s. It was done because the wood was gone. Peat is a terrible fuel. <br /><br />I think this is an often missed historical example where people switch from a better fuel to a lower-quality fuel, since the good stuff is gone. <br />Many delusional techno-optimists claim that humanity always move from worse to better fuels, and that the human ingenuity always finds a better-still-alternative. <br />Every time I hear this, I think of peat. <br />Wet, heavy, and when dried a low, low quality fuel with lots of smoke. Nobody would burn peat if they had wood...<br /><br />And as soon as it was possible, the replacement was found in anthracite fossil coal from Limburg and the Ruhr. <br /><br />The last century has seen a similar degradation, from burning black coal (higher quality) to brown coal/lignite (lower quality). Ponder that, techno-narcissists out there! <br /><br />I return to the suggestion of Ugo, live well within limits. Restrictions infuse creativity. <br /><br />Peace,<br /> GoranGöranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02375637941166085188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-44897096216324619202022-01-12T23:55:19.631+01:002022-01-12T23:55:19.631+01:00Amazing story. I didn't know it. Thanks!Amazing story. I didn't know it. Thanks!Ugo Bardihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-16254002260410635452022-01-12T16:59:38.704+01:002022-01-12T16:59:38.704+01:00Thanks for another stimulating input...Thanks for another stimulating input...Lukas Fierz https://www.blogger.com/profile/18250916325810731604noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-87034156077313274652022-01-12T14:15:20.371+01:002022-01-12T14:15:20.371+01:00The Netherlands were the first country in Europe t...The Netherlands were the first country in Europe to develop on the basis of fossil fuel. Not coal, oil or gas but peat:<br /><br />https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2011/09/peat-and-coal-fossil-fuels-in-pre-industrial-times.html<br /><br />Which depleted after 1700, ending the Golden Age of the Netherlands.<br /><br />GavinthornburyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-57940135243989985532022-01-12T11:07:59.858+01:002022-01-12T11:07:59.858+01:00Goran,
I don't have figures to hand, but I do...Goran,<br /><br />I don't have figures to hand, but I do know that up until about 7 years ago (when the total herd in Ireland dramatically expanded in response to national quotas being abolished) the inputs to dairy and beef farming in Ireland were relatively modest compared to international practice primarily because of abundant availability of pasture. In fact the farmers groups are still arguing this is the case as a basis for a derogation from having to take harsh climate action. However, the subsequent intensification of farming here has almost definitely increased farmers' exposure to energy costs both directly (i.e. fuel costs) and indirectly (embedded energy in eg fertilizer, feed supplements). <br /><br />On the question of centralized processing there's two things to note:<br />1) in ireland the vast majority (~80%) of dairy produce is exported, so it has to be centrally processed to some degree in any case.<br />2) if you set aside transport, the energy embedded in centralized dairy processing is mainly electric (the processes are relatively close to ambient conditions so high grade heat is not necessary e.g. pasturization is 70 C). Ireland already has ~40% electricity from renewables and this will probably come close to the target of 80% by end of decade, so the embedded fossil fuel in food processing is relatively low. Transport of course is another issue, but that's not a farming problem per se, but a whole socio-economic problem, and is related to the question of whether a globalized trade based system is viable without fossil fuel. It may well be the local entrepreneurs will see localized niches open up as economic systems adapt/collapse, but that will still be in the context of reduced overall production.<br /><br />CraigCraignoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-62038032748878631822022-01-12T09:39:23.807+01:002022-01-12T09:39:23.807+01:00My historic knowledge includes the Dutch use of wi...My historic knowledge includes the Dutch use of wind power long before fossil fuels to support an advanced culture. Thats only two hundred years ago. OK no cell phones nor internet, but a hell of a lot of genius that did things without reliance on keyboards and screens. Nick Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12609312325425361413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-63687567971378966542022-01-12T09:32:09.622+01:002022-01-12T09:32:09.622+01:00Yves, that all depends on how wisely you spend. I ...Yves, that all depends on how wisely you spend. I think Russia knows that they have something everyone else wants. Maybe their defense expenditure is part of their pricing strategy for energy exports. Nick Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12609312325425361413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-69467551970152548612022-01-11T22:22:12.979+01:002022-01-11T22:22:12.979+01:00Certo che l'inghilterra non lo fece apposta!
P...Certo che l'inghilterra non lo fece apposta!<br />Piuttosto, lo vedrei come un classico esempio di imprevedibilita' della storia, di effetto inatteso di un'azione svolta con tutt'altri obiettivi e intenzioni.<br />Altro esempio: il covid, la "guerra" al quale (non il covid in se') non e' da escludere che metta in moto qualche serie di eventi che nessuno scenario precedente aveva previsto come possibili, di tutte le possibili "catastrofi" che avevamo immaginato (e ne avevamo immaginate tante!).<br /><br />Fra parentesi, come sarebbe bello se ognuno potesse scrivere nella propria lingua e gli altri capirlo lo stesso (com'era un tempo fra i colti europei - fra i quali io di certo non sono da annoverare!)<br /><br />firmato winstonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-5015375001929760602022-01-11T21:00:24.812+01:002022-01-11T21:00:24.812+01:00My impression is that Europe against Russia would ...My impression is that Europe against Russia would not do much better than Italy against Britain. But, of course, you have to fight a war to know who would win it.Ugo Bardihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-52960006112327857532022-01-11T19:58:14.376+01:002022-01-11T19:58:14.376+01:00Hello Craig and É,
Do you have any numbers on the ...Hello Craig and É,<br />Do you have any numbers on the efficiency of your local dairy farmers? One of my friends milks 35 organic cows, growing all feed himself, with an output of 200,000 l milk on 4,000 l diesel yearly. (EROI approx 4, excluding all purchased machinery).<br />The neighbours who use import feed and synthetic fertilizer have higher profits for the time being. But they are much more vulnerable to energy prices. <br />A hidden cost/energy loss is the centralized processing of dairy and cool transportation. I think this will be an interesting area for local entrepreneurs with micro-dairy-equipment - instead of transporting milk back and forth, to process and bottle and distribute locally. <br />Do you see this as well? <br />GoranGöranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02375637941166085188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-43290925424980234272022-01-11T18:36:14.823+01:002022-01-11T18:36:14.823+01:00"but threatens the supplier (Now Russia, then..."but threatens the supplier (Now Russia, then Britain) with military action despite the obvious superiority of the latter."<br />that one doesn't work really (Russian GDP is what again ?)yvesThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00225964326142677776noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-8245235120008475442022-01-11T18:00:53.520+01:002022-01-11T18:00:53.520+01:00I don't think Britain did that on purpose. But...I don't think Britain did that on purpose. But it may even beUgo Bardihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-72683998176691460592022-01-11T16:33:06.858+01:002022-01-11T16:33:06.858+01:00Éanna, Ugo,
I'm in ireland as well, and I agr...Éanna, Ugo,<br /><br />I'm in ireland as well, and I agree with your observations - I've watched similar apparently frivolous energy usage in rural and remote parts of Sligo (West of Ireland) with marginal agricultural land (partially water logged, fragmented holdings, remote from main farm buildings). However in the context of diary cows it is worth remembering two things: <br />1) retail price of milk is comparable to petrol (gasoline), and that is with swingeing taxation on the fuel (Irish Central Statistics estimates the effective tax rate on petrol is > 200% . This situation is even more acute for diesel, which is a) cheaper and b) taxed at lower rates for farmers (red diesel).So the farmer is swapping a litre of (cheap) fuel, for (expensive) milk. That seems like a good trade.<br />2) Even if an individual farmer is thinking about resource depletion, the question is not whether diary farming is economically sustainable in the long term on average across the sector, but rather, can s/he recoup the capital investment soon enough so that annual expenditures are dominated by operational costs not capital costs (i.e. the bank loan is paid off). It's a variation of the tragedy of the commons scenario. Or if you prefer, musical chairs - ultimately no one has a seat, but if it's early enough in the game, the question is not "will I end up with a chair finally?", but instead "will I sit down quickly enough in this round?" <br /><br />The relatively low price for fuel compared to milk and the continued investment in farm infrastructure indicates the belief that we're still early in the game, and so the supply problems being experienced is tactical (from the supplier) rather than systemic, which is the point I think Ugo was making.<br /><br />Craig Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-36541629177549188322022-01-11T15:54:14.374+01:002022-01-11T15:54:14.374+01:00Nel '36 l'italia e' stata tenuta in pi...Nel '36 l'italia e' stata tenuta in piedi dal carbone tedesco. Fu in tal modo che l'inghilterra, furbamente, ci spinse definitivamente nelle braccia dei tedeschi.<br /><br />firmato winstonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-67632492564943652452022-01-11T07:17:38.399+01:002022-01-11T07:17:38.399+01:00Hello Ugo,
I love your conclusion that the most ...Hello Ugo, <br /><br />I love your conclusion that the most peaceful resolution is based on living within limits. Accepting reality and making do. <br />I think that the Limitlessness itself is one of the idols of our time, along with Growth and Progress. Maybe a contemporary Trinity?<br /><br />Here in the Netherlands, the gas extraction is shrinking rapidly, see e.g. https://www.statista.com/statistics/703597/natural-gas-production-netherlands/<br />and since a couple of years the country depends on imports, mainly from Russia.<br />Unfortunately, the only official discussion around using fossil gas revolves around climate change mitigation. Never about availability and dependency. <br />The same with the oil/benzine/diesel use.<br /><br />I think we could make better friends in the Middle East if we did not need Saudi oil. What do you think?<br /><br />Peace,<br /> GöranGöranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02375637941166085188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-20954376308888002902022-01-11T00:56:31.902+01:002022-01-11T00:56:31.902+01:00* This Show, the likely language-dirtiest TV serie...<b>*</b> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=432QerqiQxs" rel="nofollow">This Show</a>, the likely language-dirtiest TV series ever seen by Iraqis, as if produced from the dirtiest brothel in the world - talks wonders;<br /><br /><b>It educates war-torn Iraqis that in few years time, their oil will be so unneeded, it will all be left for themselves to fully solely enjoy, burning it in oil lamps at their luxury and convenience - as alternative energy will be dominant</b>. <br /><br />It also misleads the viewers that historically, coal replaced biomass, oil replaced coal and natural gas has replaced loads of all those before it - while, actually, nothing has replaced nothing;<br /><br />Today, coal didn't replace biomass but added to it, oil didn't replace coal but added to it, and natural gas hardly replaced any of those - "<a href="https://the-fifth-law.com/pages/press-release?ugo=https://thesenecaeffect.blogspot.com/2022/01/how-to-keep-gasoline-prices-low-by.html" rel="nofollow">Energy, like time, flows from past to future</a>".<br /><br />Actually, nobody knows today for sure how much oil is exported/smuggled from Iraq - is it 4.5 million barrel a day, 6 million b/d or even 11 million b/d.<br /><br />The more Iraq exports/smuggles oil, the worse the national power grid in the country performs, if at all.<br /><br />The above Show is understood being produced in Europe, orchestrated and financed by mainstream media forces in coal-depleted, energy-starved Germany.<br /><br />Germany, the nation that produced the finest of all literature in the world, is now so fossil fuels-humiliated and reduced to produce such a low content.<br /><br />Wailing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-25628479291741148422022-01-11T00:53:02.121+01:002022-01-11T00:53:02.121+01:00At that time, nobody could understand how depletio...<b><i>At that time, nobody could understand how depletion affects production (not even nowadays people do). So most Italians took the reduced coal supply from Britain as a purposeful geopolitical attack</i>. <br /><br />Today, it is even prohibited to say the word - <i>depletion</i>, only <i>geopolitical attacks, pandemics, climate change or how great renewable and nuclear energy is</i> - are allowed to be in circulation *</b><br /><br /><a href="https://www.bitchute.com/video/jJKIbLX3ycd7/" rel="nofollow">Here is an example</a> on how the media is allowed talking all sorts of mishmash geopolitics <b>but never a word on depletion - as if Iraqi, Saudi, Iranian, Russian oil and gas, like peaking-British Coal in 1913 for Italians - never deplete</b>.<br /><br /><a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Downstream_Oil_Theft_web_0106.pdf" rel="nofollow">Downstream Oil Theft Web</a> Is a highly important document - that stops short of rightly predicting that - from now on, volumes of smuggled fossil fuels worldwide will supersede those 'non-smuggled', reported by mainstream international Energy bodies.<br /><br /><a href="https://the-fifth-law.com/pages/the-peak-oil-musical-chairs%E2%84%A2-calculator?ugo=https://thesenecaeffect.blogspot.com/2022/01/how-to-keep-gasoline-prices-low-by.html" rel="nofollow">OPEC will likely turn to OPEM[ilitias]</a>, over time.<br /><br />Ugo needed to also signify that, likely, Europe will eventually try and cut America from fuel supplies going to it from the ME, Africa and Russia, sparing those fuels to its own continuity.<br /><br />Our elders in America will likely strongly agree, understanding that the Energy cost of transporting fuels to America is exceeding the energy in the fuel transported.<br /><br />This inspires that the age of <b>undoing Christopher Columbus</b> is imminently in the pipeline - where severely energy-depleting America will lastly gain its freedom back to itself from the brutal, unforgiving, energy-thirsty old Lady - Europe (read/watch Stanford's bright historian Ian Morris' - <b>Why Geography more important than History</b>). <br /><br />When most of the voices on the Internet today, tackling finite Energy resources, have obsessively switched to exclusively talk <i>Vaccines and Pandemics</i>, propagating that - <b>Energy is no more than a matter of Pricing</b> - Ugo is providing here a rare, fine quality, brave observation that hasn't been seen exchanged in the whole world for a very long time - Bravo Ugo.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-12208963315319322442022-01-11T00:43:22.721+01:002022-01-11T00:43:22.721+01:00As Eric Sevareid said, ‘The chief cause of problem...As Eric Sevareid said, ‘The chief cause of problems is solutions'.<br /><br />Two items in this week’s Energy Bulletin caught my attention. <br /><br />1) 'Russia may be nearing its oil production capacity limit. Bloomberg reported that the country’s December oil and condensate was flat from November to December, suggesting it used all its available production capacity.'<br /><br />2) 'Since the pandemic began, efforts to relocate manufacturing back to the US from abroad have accelerated, said Claudio Knizek . . . “It may have reached a tipping point,” he added. Decades of dependence on Asian factories, especially in China, have been upended by delays and surging freight rates — when shipping capacity can be found at all. In addition, backups at overwhelmed ports and the challenges of obtaining components and finished products in a timely way have convinced companies to think about locating production capacity closer to buyers.'<br /><br />In the short term resource/globalization depletion problems may turn out to be more serious than climate change or the pandemic, but they seem to be mostly hidden from view. Time for some Autarchia.ChemEnghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05168251215012150114noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-69459650604210602852022-01-11T00:07:34.791+01:002022-01-11T00:07:34.791+01:00Hi Ugo,
Are we seeing the obvious start of things...Hi Ugo,<br /><br />Are we seeing the obvious start of things to come with regards energy prices/depletion. <br />Kazakstan now in the news too for removing a price cap. <br />Im in Ireland and Ive watched for the past week as 2 tractors with dumper trailers drawing 20 tons each of crushed rock for a farm/dairy cow road. Many trips each a day. 1000s of tons. Im not sure whether its a robot milking system or conventional but when energy prices rise here and it reaches the dairy farmers it is going to make their profits shrink dramatically.(EU milk quotas were removed a few years ago, farms have exploded here, creating monoculture at larger scales)<br />Many are predicting a milk bubble that will burst, its hard not to believe it.<br />Hopefully some of the farmers come to their senses before that and start growing real food!(most milk ends up as ingredients/foodstuffs for industry/processed foods and export).<br /><br />Anywho Thanks again for a good read<br /><br />É in Ireland<br />Funsterdeluxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02185415689016384630noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-5633709154972542332022-01-11T00:07:03.993+01:002022-01-11T00:07:03.993+01:00Hi Ugo,
Are we seeing the obvious start of things...Hi Ugo,<br /><br />Are we seeing the obvious start of things to come with regards energy prices/depletion. <br />Kazakstan now in the news too for removing a price cap. <br />Im in Ireland and Ive watched for the past week as 2 tractors with dumper trailers drawing 20 tons each of crushed rock for a farm/dairy cow road. Many trips each a day. 1000s of tons. Im not sure whether its a robot milking system or conventional but when energy prices rise here and it reaches the dairy farmers it is going to make their profits shrink dramatically.(EU milk quotas were removed a few years ago, farms have exploded here, creating monoculture at larger scales)<br />Many are predicting a milk bubble that will burst, its hard not to believe it.<br />Hopefully some of the farmers come to their senses before that and start growing real food!(most milk ends up as ingredients/foodstuffs for industry/processed foods and export).<br /><br />Anywho Thanks again for a good read<br /><br />Éanna in Ireland<br />Funsterdeluxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02185415689016384630noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-15963088747966046672022-01-10T18:57:06.565+01:002022-01-10T18:57:06.565+01:00Giusto! Grazie per la correzioneGiusto! Grazie per la correzioneUgo Bardihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1585995614037680457.post-48964219664979880202022-01-10T18:44:59.617+01:002022-01-10T18:44:59.617+01:00Segnalo che, per una migliore comprensione,
sarebb...Segnalo che, per una migliore comprensione,<br />sarebbe meglio correggere la tabella in: <br /><br />Coal --> Natural Gas<br />Italy --> Europe<br />Britain --> Russia<br />Germany --> USA<br /><br /><br />(prima --> dopo), senza nulla togliere alla originale chiave di lettura, semplice e geniale, come sempre. sanpeihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12556637106512130256noreply@blogger.com